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Income of National Fund at the end of 2020 remained positive — Erbolat Dossaev

Tuesday, 12 January 2021, 10:51:13

At the government session chaired by Prime Minister Askar Mamin, the results of the country's socio-economic development and the execution of the republican budget for 2020 were considered.

Chair of the National Bank Erbolat Dossaev reported on the state of the banking sector. According to the head of the National Bank, in December 2020, despite the record number of cases of COVID-19, positive sentiment prevailed in the global markets.

“The start of mass vaccinations in developed and large countries has sent a positive signal to the markets, improving forecasts for a recovery in economic activity. Adoption of an additional $900 billion stimulus package for the American economy provided significant support to the stock and commodity markets,” Dossaev said.

Key stock indices ended the year with significant growth. The broad S&P 500 index for December 2020 added 3.7%, the Dow Jones industrial index — 3.3%, the NASDAQ high-tech index — 5.1%.

Against this background, the US dollar index showed a downward trend, against the background of which the price of gold rose over the month by 6.6% to $1,893.1 per ounce.

According to the head of the National Bank, uncertainty about the pace of recovery in 2021 remains against the background of a record number of registered patients and deaths in Europe's largest economy, Germany, as well as a new virus strain registered in the UK, which in January 2020 spread to other continents. This has led to a tightening of restrictive measures, which carries risks for the recovery of the global economy.

“The Global Composite PMI in December 2020 fell slightly to 52.7 points from 53.1 in November. Despite the restrictive measures, the EU PMI in December rose to 49.1 from 45.3. At the same time, the index of business activity in the Chinese industry for the month decreased from 54.9 to 53 due to a slowdown in production growth,” Dossaev said.

The consolidated index of business activity in Kazakhstan for December 2020 slightly decreased from 49.4 to 49, largely due to a decrease in business activity in construction, where the indicator fell from 52.5 to 49.5. In the service sector, there is a decrease by 0.7 points to 48. At the same time, the industry for the first time since January 2020 entered the positive zone, the index rose from 49.6 to 50.3.

The general decline in the economy of Kazakhstan in 2020 by 2.6% corresponds to the forecasts of the National Bank at the level of 2.5-2.7%.

Annual inflation also formed in line with the National Bank's expectations at the level of 7.0-7.5%, at the end of 2020 accelerating to 7.5% compared to 7.3% a month earlier.

Food inflation continues to make the largest contribution to the overall rise in prices. The annual growth in food prices increased from 10.8% to 11.3% amid growing imbalances in the markets for certain food products (vegetable oil, sugar, eggs).

Non-food inflation slowed down from 5.7% to 5.5% amid a slowdown in the growth of prices for clothing and footwear to 4.8% (November — 5.2%).

Inflation for paid services accelerated from 4.1% to 4.2% due to higher prices for catering and hotel services.

At the same time, in December 2020, the rise in oil prices and increased demand for risky assets, along with increased domestic supply due to sales of foreign exchange by exporters for tax payments, allowed the exchange rate of the tenge to strengthen by 1.0% from 425.07 to 420. 91 tenge per $.

In general, in 2020, the national currency, along with other currencies of developing countries, weakened amid the crisis caused by the coronavirus, which led to the withdrawal of investors from risky assets. Thus, the Brazilian real weakened by 29%, the Turkish lira by 25%, and the Russian ruble by 19.3%. The tenge exchange rate for 2020 has depreciated by 10% from 382.60 to 420.91 tenge per $.

Dossaev emphasized that the exchange rate of the tenge managed to close the year, having significantly won back the March fall to 448.5 tenge due to the improvement of external conditions and the set of measures taken by the National Bank together with the Government.

Following the results of trading on the stock exchange on January 11 of this year. the exchange rate amounted to 419.18 tenge per $, having strengthened from the beginning of the month by another 0.4%.

Exports of goods decreased by 18.2% or by $7.9 billion to $35.3 billion due to a drop in oil and gas condensate exports. Imports of goods decreased by 9.6% or by $2.8 billion to $26.4 billion as a result of reduced imports of investment and intermediate goods.

“Gold and foreign exchange reserves as of Dec. 31, 2020, according to preliminary data, amounted to $35.7 billion, having increased by $6.7 billion over the year due to the growth of the gold portfolio by $4.7 billion to $23.6 billion as a result of an increase in the price of gold. Assets in freely convertible currency as part of gold and foreign exchange reserves increased by $2 billion due to the inflow of funds within the framework of compensation from the Karachaganak Consortium, a loan from the Asian Development Bank, as well as the inflow of funds from second tier banks to foreign currency accounts at the National Bank,” Dossaev said.

The assets of the National Fund amounted to $58.7 billion, having decreased by $3.1 billion over the year due to the excess of expenses over revenues amid the implementation of anti-crisis measures and the fall in oil prices.

Despite market volatility, the investment income of the National Fund at the end of 2020 remained positive and amounted to $4.1 billion, or 7.5%.

Deposits in the banking system at the end of November 2020 amounted to 21.9 trillion tenge, having increased by 15.3% since the beginning of the year, mainly due to the growth of tenge deposits.

Deposits in national currency increased by 23.1% to 13.3 trillion tenge, foreign currency deposits — by 5.1% tenge, amounting to 8.6 trillion tenge at the end of November 2020.

As a result, the level of dollarization of deposits decreased to 39.3% in November 2020.

Loans from the beginning of 2020 increased by 5.6% to 14.65 trillion tenge at the end of November 2020 as a result of the growth of long-term loans. Short-term loans increased by 3% or 60.5 billion tenge to 2.1 trillion tenge.

The business loan portfolio since the beginning of 2020 has increased by 1.2% to 7.29 trillion tenge. The rate on business loans in tenge was 11.9% in November 2020, incl. for short-term loans — 11.6%, for long-term loans — 13.1%.

Since the beginning of 2020, loans to the population have increased by 10.5% to 7.36 trillion tenge. In their structure, consumer loans increased by 3.2% to 4.3 trillion tenge, mortgage loans — by 27.8% to 2.3 trillion tenge due to the implementation of state programs.

To support the economy, the implementation of anti-crisis initiatives of the Head of State continues.

1. Under the Economy of Simple Things Program, as of Dec. 31, 2020, 1,373 applications for the amount of 1 trillion tenge were received from entrepreneurs, of which 854 applications for a total of 658.9 billion tenge were approved by banks, 778 loans were issued for 516, 2 billion tenge.

2. Under the Program of Concessional Lending to Business Entities, as of Dec. 31, 2020, entrepreneurs submitted 2,493 applications for 612.5 billion tenge, of which 1,733 applications for 474.6 billion tenge were approved, 5,158 loans for 528 billion tenge were issued, of which 2,454 loans for 136 billion tenge at the expense of money received from the repayment of previously issued loans.

Support for housing construction continues with funding from the National Bank.

1. Under the 7-20-25 program, as of Dec. 30, 2020, 48,355 applications for 567.3 billion tenge were received, 27,700 applications for 326.2 billion tenge were approved, of which 22,169 loans were issued for 258.7 billion tenge.

2. Under the Baspana Hit market mortgage program, as of Dec. 30, 2020, 95,719 applications for 868.6 billion tenge were received, 50,939 applications for 457.4 billion tenge were approved, 42,166 loans were issued for 370.1 billion tenge.

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