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Macroeconomic indicators of Kazakhstan demonstrate positive dynamics — Ministry of National Economy

Thursday, 11 March 2021, 10:31:08

At the government session chaired by Prime Minister Askar Mamin, Minister of National Economy Aset Irgaliyev reported on the economic situation following the results of the country's socio-economic development and the execution of the republican budget for the first 2 months of this year.

Thus, according to Irgaliyev, the reporting period demonstrates the normalization of the epidemiological situation in many countries as a result of active vaccination. The number of new cases of infection decreased by 46% compared to mid-January 2021, in Kazakhstan - by 59%.

The decision taken by the OPEC+ countries to maintain restrictions on oil production for April 2021 had a positive effect on the conjuncture of world commodity markets. Today the price of Brent crude oil is $67 per barrel.

There is also a recovery in metal prices. Since the beginning of this year, the average growth in metal prices has made 7%.

In general, the key condition for the recovery of business activity is the normalization of the epidemiological situation.

In February 2021, the Big Three international rating agencies Moody’s, Fitch Ratings and Standard and Poor’s have confirmed the sovereign credit ratings of Kazakhstan at the pre-pandemic investment level. The main factors in confirming the country's credit ratings in the context of a pandemic are a high level of sustainability of growth in the real sector of the economy, the potential for recovery growth of the economy and household income, flexibility and efficiency in the formation of anti-crisis measures, as well as significant fiscal reserves.

Against this background, international rating agencies predict GDP growth in Kazakhstan in 2021 at the level of 3.2-3.8%.

According to the results of January-February 2021, macroeconomic indicators showed a positive trend.

In the real sector, excluding mining, growth accelerated to 6.3%.

Fixed capital investments excluding mining increased by 13.3%.

Annual inflation remained at the level of the previous month — 7.4%.

“All branches of the real sector, with the exception of the mining industry, showed steady growth. These are construction, water supply, manufacturing, electricity and agriculture. There is also an increase in the sphere of information and communication by 9.4%. As a result, the GDP growth rate improved from minus 4.5% in January to minus 2.9% in January-February this year,” the minister of national economy said.

Manufacturing industries continue to grow steadily. Growth accelerated in mechanical engineering to 21.2%, construction materials production — up to 22.9%, chemical products — up to 14.1%, plastic products — up to 14.2%, clothing — up to 19.9%, furniture — up to 15.7%, pharmaceuticals — up to 9.2%. High growth is noted in the automotive industry at the level of 19.6%.

As for the manufacturing industry, it shows an increase of 6.1%.

14 regions showed positive dynamics. Thus, the greatest increase is noted in the city of Almaty and the Almaty region due to the growth in the production of tobacco products and the production of electric batteries, in the city of Nur-Sultan — due to the growth in the production of ready-mixed concrete, refined gold and railway locomotives.

Work is being actively carried out to attract internal and external investments. The average growth in investments excluding the mining industry was 13.3%.

A significant increase in investments is noted in the field of information and communications by 2.1 times, manufacturing — by 85%, transport — by 56%, agriculture — by 40%, trade — by 31%, construction — by 25% and real estate transactions, property — by 18%.

Most regions show high investment activity. The best indicators are noted in the city of Shymkent due to the growth of construction of industrial facilities and the purchase of production equipment, in the Zhambyl region — due to the reconstruction of highways of republican importance, in the Turkistan region — due to the construction of solar power plants and the multifunctional tourist complex Karavanserai.

The construction sector is showing high growth rates. The volume of completed construction work increased by 9.7%. An increase in construction volumes is observed in the Turkistan region, in the city of Shymkent — due to the construction of healthcare facilities, apartment buildings and highways, in the Akmola region — due to the construction of healthcare facilities and the mining industry, engineering systems.

“In January-February 2021, 1.9 million sq. m of housing were commissioned. This is 12.8% higher than the same period last year. It is necessary to maintain this dynamics to ensure the commissioning of the planned 17 million sq. m of housing in 2021. All regions showed positive growth. The largest housing commissioning is noted in Shymkent — 4.6 times,” Irgaliyev noted.

A steady growth is also noted in the field of agriculture at the level of 3.1%. Positive dynamics is observed in 13 regions. The greatest growth was shown by the Akmola region due to an increase in the slaughter of livestock and poultry, the production of raw cow's milk.

The situation in general in the regional context for 7 economic indicators is as follows:

  • for 6 indicators, positive growth is noted in the Almaty region;
  • according to 5 indicators, growth is observed in 6 regions — these are Akmola, Aktobe, East Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Kostanay regions, as well as the city of Shymkent;
  • 8 regions recorded growth in 4 indicators, this is an average level;
  • in 2 regions, positive growth is observed in 2-3 indicators.

At the same time, the Almaty region entered the positive zone for trade, and the Atyrau region for transport.

Positive growth is observed in attracting private investment in 12 regions, of which in 6 regions — at the level of more than 20%.

As the head of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan reported, in order to implement the tasks set, central and local executive bodies are invited to focus on the following measures to stimulate economic growth.

  1. As part of the further development of infrastructure, it is necessary to accelerate the launch of the season of active construction work within the framework of the Nurly Zher, Nurly Zhol and Employment Roadmap programs, and the Aul - El Besigi project.
  2. To stimulate business activity, it is necessary to effectively implement urgent measures of direct action by providing access to finance and demand markets, reducing the burden on businesses to support SMEs. These measures were taken on March 4, 2021, at a meeting of the State Commission for Economic Growth Restoration.
  3. The real sector proved to be resistant to external shocks, and also has great potential for high-quality economic growth. In this regard, it is necessary to continue the active and timely implementation of the projects of the Industrialization Map and import substitution in the agro-industrial complex.
  4. It is necessary to take on special control to prevent the growth of prices for socially significant foodstuffs, ensuring their active saturation of the market.
  5. The basic condition for high-quality and sustainable development of the economy is active investment attraction and targeted work with investors.

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