12 May 2022, 12:27
At the regular government session chaired by the Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan Alikhan Smailov, the results of the socio-economic development of the country and the implementation of the republican budget for 4 months of this year were considered. Reports on this issue were made by Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan Yerulan Zhamaubayev, Minister of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan Alibek Kuantyrov, Chair of the National Bank Galymzhan Pirmatov.
According to the Minister of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan Alibek Kuantyrov, in January-April of this year the growth rate of the economy of Kazakhstan amounted to 4.4%. During the reporting period, according to the main trends, there is an acceleration of growth in the real sector, a gradual increase in exports, and stable dynamics in the service sector.
Growth in the real sector amounted to 5.1%. Business activity in the services sector increased to 3.4%. Among the industries, trade, construction, transport and warehousing, information and communication, manufacturing, water supply, mining, and agriculture show positive growth.
The growth rate of investments in fixed assets amounted to 2.3%. The dynamics of growth in investments in fixed assets, excluding the mining industry, amounted to 0.7%. Investments have grown in education — by 87%, public administration; social security — by 74.1%, construction — by 62%, scientific and technical activities — by 53.7%.
In the regional context, the best indicators are noted in the city of Shymkent, as well as in the Akmola region and the city of Almaty.
“In January-March of this year, foreign trade turnover increased by 45% and amounted to $28.7 billion. Including, the export indicator increased by 66% and amounted to $19.1 billion. At the same time, the export of processed goods increased by 32.4% to $5.3 billion. Imports of goods amounted to $9.5 billion. In general, the positive trade balance amounted to $9.6 billion,” Kuantyrov informed.
The manufacturing industry maintains a steady growth trend. For January-April this year production volume increased by 5.8%. Positive growth was noted in all regions. The largest increase is noted in the city of Almaty, as well as in Atyrau and Zhambyl regions.
At the same time, in the context of manufacturing industries, a dynamic growth in the production of engineering products was ensured — by 9.4%, including the automotive industry — by 18.6%, the production of computers, electronic and optical equipment — by 13.3%, building materials — by 9.5%, beverages — by 18.7%, plastic products — by 14.3%, finished metal products — by 10.8%, pharmaceutical products — by 6.4%, clothing — by 13.8%.
In the mining industry, the volume of production increased by 4.4%. In terms of industries, production increased in the provision of services in the mining industry — by 17%, gas extraction — by 6.4%, crude oil extraction by 5%, extraction of other minerals — by 4.2%, extraction of metal ores — by 1.8%, coal mining — by 1.7%.
“In the noted period, the construction sector demonstrates high growth rates and the volume of completed construction work increased by 9.5%. Positive growth of the indicator was recorded in 15 regions. The greatest growth in construction and installation works is noted in the Akmola region, as well as in the cities of Almaty and Nur-Sultan. According to the results of January-April this year housing commissioning increased by 2.4%, amounting to 3.6 million square meters. m of housing," the Minister of National Economy said.
Positive dynamics was recorded in 13 regions. The highest rates are observed in the city of Shymkent, as well as Almaty and Pavlodar regions.
In agriculture, gross output increased by 1.9% in the reporting period. Growth in production in the industry was recorded in 12 regions. The greatest growth was shown by Mangystau, North-Kazakhstan and East-Kazakhstan regions. The lowest rates are observed in Kostanay and West Kazakhstan regions.
“The general situation in the regional context in terms of 7 economic indicators is as follows. For all indicators, positive growth is noted in 6 regions — Akmola, Almaty, Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan regions, as well as in the cities of Nur-Sultan and Shymkent. According to 6 indicators, growth is observed in 5 regions. These are Aktobe, Karaganda, Kostanay, Kyzylorda, North Kazakhstan regions. According to 5 indicators, positive growth is observed in 6 regions — Atyrau, West Kazakhstan, Zhambyl, Mangystau and Turkistan regions, as well as the city of Almaty,” Kuantyrov explained.
Central and local executive bodies are invited to focus on the following measures:
Chair of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan Galymzhan Pirmatov said that external and internal factors of inflation are exerting increasing upward pressure.
“Inflationary pressures are mounting globally as geopolitical tensions exacerbate supply chain problems. World food prices are at high levels. Against the backdrop of the continuing rise in the cost of raw materials and materials, there is a widespread rise in the cost of final products,” said the head of the National Bank.
Inflation in Kazakhstan, in accordance with the forecast of the National Bank, in April this year increased from 12% in March this year to 13.2% against the backdrop of accelerating price growth for all components.
Annual growth in food prices accelerated from 15.4% to 17.9%. The largest contribution to the annual growth in food prices is made by sugar, white cabbage, sunflower oil.
The weekly increase in prices for socially important food products has stabilized. However, due to the sharp increase in weekly prices in March and the rush demand for certain goods, prices in annual terms remain at a high level.
“The external inflationary background continues to exert upward pressure on the prices of non-food products, the growth of which accelerated from 10.9% to 11.1%. Prices for paid services increased from 8.3% to 8.9%, which is associated with an increase in prices for a number of market services. Taking into account the existing pro-inflationary risks, inflation will remain at elevated levels until the end of the year,” Pirmatov said.
In April, despite the ongoing volatility in global financial markets, the tenge appreciated to 445.62 tenge per US dollar, or by 4.6%.
During April, there was a noticeable decrease in demand for foreign currency. The average daily trading volume on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange decreased from $179 million to $92 million.
“The foreign exchange market was supported by sales of foreign exchange earnings by entities of the quasi-public sector, which amounted to about $253.2 million. Foreign currency sales to ensure transfers from the National Fund to the republican budget in April amounted to $168.3 million. The share of sales from the National Fund amounted to 8.7% of of the total trading volume,” Pirmatov informed.
Against the backdrop of stabilization of the situation in the domestic foreign exchange market during April, the National Bank did not carry out foreign exchange interventions.
In the short term, risks of tenge volatility remain due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation. The National Bank will continue to adhere to the flexible exchange rate regime, which eliminates the accumulation of imbalances and ensures the safety of gold and foreign exchange reserves.
Gross international reserves at the end of April this year amounted to $85.9 billion.
The NBRK's gold and foreign exchange assets amounted to $33.5 billion, having decreased by $851 million since the beginning of the year due to foreign exchange interventions, balances on second-tier banks' accounts and payments on external debt.
The assets of the National Fund amounted to $52.4 billion. To allocate transfers to the republican budget in the amount of 1.5 trillion tenge for 4 months of this year $2.3 billion worth of foreign exchange assets were sold.
Against the backdrop of a significant increase in oil prices, receipts to the National Fund since the beginning of the year amounted to 2.1 trillion tenge, an increase of more than 5 times compared to the same period last year.
The profitability of the National Fund from the beginning of its creation to April 30, 2022 in annual terms is 3.22%. The yield over the past 5 and 10 years in annual terms amounted to 2.38% and 1.62%, respectively.
Pension assets of the UAPF, according to the head of the National Bank, amounted to 12.9 trillion tenge. The volume of investment income since the beginning of this year. amounted to about 136.5 billion tenge, pension contributions — 524 billion tenge, pension payments — 89.6 billion tenge.
“The return on pension assets over the past 12 months was 8%. At the same time, from the point of view of the stability of the funded pension system, it is advisable to consider the indicators of profitability and inflation over a longer time horizon. So, for example, the profitability of pension assets over the past 3 and 5 years in annual terms is 9.25% and 9.44% with inflation of 8.96% and 7.64%, respectively,” Pirmatov said.
The National Bank monitors the development of the situation and their impact on the markets in real time, assesses the degree of impact of sanctions on the financial system of Kazakhstan and will continue to take measures to ensure price and financial stability.
In turn, the Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan Yerulan Zhamaubayev said that the state budget received revenues in the amount of 5 trillion 93 billion tenge or the plan was fulfilled by 108.6%. About 3.4 trillion tenge was received in the republican budget, or the plan was fulfilled by 101.1%.
The revenue plan was overfulfilled by 36 billion tenge, of which taxes — by 24 billion tenge, non-tax — by 12 billion tenge.
The main amount of overfulfillment in taxes is accounted for by CIT, ETP on crude oil, tax on gambling business and MET.
The factors for overfulfillment of the CIT plan are:
In general, an additional 303 billion tenge went to the budget, of which 29 billion tenge was due to tax administration measures.
“The overfulfillment of the ETP plan for crude oil is mainly due to an increase in January-April of this year. rates for crude oil from the forecast indicator by an average of 42%, as well as a change in the exchange rate of the tenge against the US dollar. The gambling business tax plan was overfulfilled due to the repayment of debts on tax audit reports,” said Zhamaubayev.
The overfulfillment of the MET plan was affected by the increase in prices for 4 months of this year. compared to the same period in 2021 for the main export positions.
Meanwhile, the plan has not been fulfilled for VAT on domestically produced goods.
The revenues of local budgets were executed by 127.1% and amounted to 1 trillion 719 billion tenge. The plan was overfulfilled by 366 billion tenge, of which taxes — by 325 billion tenge.
Revenue plans were overfulfilled in all regions, with the exception of the Mangystau region.
State budget expenditures were executed by 98.8%, republican — by 99.4%, local budgets - by 98.5%. According to the republican budget, expenditures were made in the amount of 5.6 trillion tenge. Non-fulfillment amounted to 31 billion tenge, of which 8 billion tenge was savings. Not mastered — 23 billion tenge. The largest sums of non-disbursement were formed in the ministries of finance, culture and sports, defense and internal affairs.
“The main reasons for non-development are: lengthy procedures for concluding contracts, the absence or failure to submit documents confirming the validity of the payment, late submission of invoices for payment to the treasury authorities, late submission of acts of work performed, invoices, failed public procurement tenders,” explained Zhamaubayev.
Local budget expenditures amounted to 2.7 trillion tenge. Not fulfilled — 42 billion tenge.
This year, the regions are provided with targeted transfers in the amount of almost 2.6 trillion tenge. As of May 1, they were allocated 696 billion tenge. Of these, 98.3% have been mastered. Not fulfilled — 12 billion tenge, including savings — 3 billion tenge, not mastered — 9 billion tenge.
The greatest non-development has developed in the following regions: Mangystau, Almaty and Karaganda regions, as well as in the city of Nur-Sultan.
Meanwhile, for 4 months of this year. desk control covered public procurement procedures in the amount of about 4.4 trillion tenge.
Based on the results of inspections, violations were found in 13,967 procedures, of which 90% of notifications on the elimination of violations were executed by state audit facilities.
Over 739 audit activities were carried out. The audit covered about 1.7 trillion tenge of budget funds. Financial violations for 75 billion tenge were established.
“Violations were eliminated by 65 billion tenge by restoring the supply of goods, the provision of services and the performance of work, reimbursement to the budget and reflection in accounting,” said Zhamaubayev.
More than 600 recommendations were given to improve and increase the efficiency of the audited objects.
The comprehensive privatization plan for 2021-2025 provides for the implementation of 721 facilities.
During the reporting period, out of a total of 670 objects, 227 objects worth 61 billion tenge were sold and transferred to trust management with the right to subsequently buy out. 40 properties are up for auction. 36 objects were sent for reorganization and liquidation. 162 objects are on pre-sale preparation. For 205 objects, an analysis is being carried out to prevent the emergence of private operators.